Adriano Bellinvia

Progetto di ricerca
Climate and Geopolitical Uncertainty in European Banks’ Credit Portfolios

This doctoral thesis brings together three complementary studies that collectively examine the relationship between emerging systemic risks, particularly climate and geopolitical risks, and the credit risk of European banks. While each chapter adopts distinct methodologies and focuses on specific risk dimensions, they are all united by a common objective: to enhance the conceptual, empirical, and policy understanding of how new forms of uncertainty affect bank behavior and financial stability.

The first paper provides a bibliometric review of climate risk research in banking, identifying key theoretical frameworks, transmission channels, and policy developments that shape banks’ exposure to climate risks.

The second paper empirically examines how climate transition and physical risks affect banks’ credit risk across 102 financial institutions in 21 European Economic Area countries between 2019 and 2023, revealing that higher climate risk exposure significantly increases credit risk.

The third paper extends this analysis by incorporating geopolitical risk, demonstrating that both climate and geopolitical factors substantially elevate banks’ credit vulnerability. Collectively, these studies contribute to the understanding of how climate and geopolitical risks propagate through the financial system, offering evidence-based insights for risk management and regulatory supervision.

Pubblicazioni

•